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Why is the stock market rallying?
I’m not necessarily claiming it shouldn’t be rallying, but as a thought exercise — even though stocks are down a bit as I write Monday morning — what’s your answer to why the S&P has surged 25% in three weeks as of Friday’s close?
Odds are, you might point toward how global authorities are beginning to get a handle on the growth of COVID-19 … how the financial stimulus will soon be kicking in … how there’s discussion of reopening the economy … how things could begin to get back to normal sooner than later.
All valid points.
But a follow-up question …
Do you think those points warrant this 25% rally, and that it should be sustained? In other words, does our current stock market valuation accurately reflect where stocks should be trading right now?
Keep in mind, from its all-time-high set back in mid-February …
Despite historic U.S. unemployment …
Despite the nation still being under lockdown …
Despite investors not knowing the full impact of COVID-19 on corporate earnings …
Despite 295 companies having now pulled their guidance …
Despite nearly one-third of all apartment-renters having been unable to pay April rent …
Despite the prediction from leading economists that the U.S. economy will contract by 30% from April through June …
Despite Fed Chair Powell saying the U.S. employment situation is deteriorating “with alarming speed” …
Despite IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva saying “We anticipate the worst economic fallout since the Great Depression” …
Despite all that, as of Friday, the S&P was now down just 17% from its all-time-high.
Now, I’m not a bear. My portfolio has taken a massive wallop like everyone else’s, so I’m rooting for a vigorous, sustained recovery. But I’m suspicious of this 25% rally over the last few weeks, and today, we’re going to look at why you should be suspicious too.
Editor's Note: To keep reading, click here.
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