- Deutsche Bank said it sees the world plunging into a coronavirus-fueled recession in the first half of 2020 before recovering through the rest of the year.
- Quarterly GDP declines seen in the first and second quarters will “substantially exceed anything previously recorded going back to at least World War II,” the bank's economists wrote.
- China will see its economy shrink by 31.7% in the first quarter before a sharp rebound in the following three-month period, the bank said, adding that the US economy would slump by 12.9% in the second quarter.
- The bank cited the virus' rapid spread in Europe and the US and the faster-than-expected drop in economic activity for its latest forecast.
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Deutsche Bank is the latest financial institution to forecast a global recession in 2020, and its second-quarter projections would be the biggest economic contractions in nearly 80 years.
Plummeting first-quarter demand in China will initiate the global slowdown before a similar hit is seen in the eurozone and the US, the team of economists led by Peter Hooper wrote on Wednesday. The coronavirus outbreak has already dragged major economies close to complete halts as quarantine orders and business shutdowns block consumer spending and leave companies rushing to shore up cash.
China will see its gross domestic product slump by 31.7% in the first quarter before rocketing to 34% in the following three-month period, the economists said. The US economy will grow by just 0.6% in the first quarter before slipping into a 12.9% contraction, they added.
